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Wednesday, November 03, 2004
Blowing smoke from nether orifices
Taken from the Ohio Sec-State's website as of this posting:
| Office Candidate President/Vice President |
Party | Votes | % Of Votes |
| Bush, George W. | Republican | 2,780,285 | 50.98% |
| Kerry, John F. | Democratic | 2,647,121 | 48.54% |
| Difference: | 133,164 | 2.44% | |
Even if one assumes that there were 200,000 provisional ballots, every one of which is ruled valid, and that those 200,000 additional votes went to Sen. Kerry by a ridiculously high 67% margin (134,000 added to Sen. Kerry's total and 66,000 added to to Pres. Bush's), that would still leave Pres. Bush with total of 2,846,285 to Sen. Kerry's 2,781,121, leaving Pres. Bush with a margin of 65,164 votes.
One effect of the incredible closeness of the 2000 election in Florida was perhaps to create a misimpression in the minds of the public that recounts, challenges, and so forth can sway huge quantities of votes.
Friends and neighbors, I'm no expert in election law, but I'm enough of a lawyer and a student of civics to tell you that no recount procedure is going to change a 65,164-vote margin.
Go ahead and color Ohio red for this election in permanent ink. No amount of lawyering is going to flip this state.
Update (Wed Nov 3 @ 8:15am): As of this posting, the Ohio Sec-State website shows a total of only 135,149 provisional ballots cast, but lacks any totals from 10 of 88 counties. I don't know the names or population sizes of Ohio counties, but I find it hard to believe that the 10 unreported counties, plus whatever else comes in via mail or otherwise, are going to produce enough additional provisional ballots to get to the 250,000 numbers the Kerry campaign was touting last night.
Per CNN,
Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell issued orders for counties by 2 p.m. Wednesday to report total numbers of provisional ballots. Counting of those ballots will not begin until Thursday, according to Blackwell's directive.
It is not clear how long the ballot-counting will take. Initially, Blackwell said the counting of provisional and absentee ballots would not begin for 11 days.
He said he could not immediately put an estimate on the number of those ballots but said 250,000 might not be out of the realm of possibility.
While he said the exact number of provisional ballots was unknown, he said it is "trending toward 175,000."
Posted by Beldar at 04:40 AM in Politics (2006 & earlier) | Permalink
TrackBacks
Other weblog posts, if any, whose authors have linked to Blowing smoke from nether orifices and sent a trackback ping are listed here:
» Ohio VS Pennsylvania from Pull On Superman's Cape
Tracked on Nov 3, 2004 5:31:42 AM
» Memo to Senator Kerry from The Truth Laid Bear
Tracked on Nov 3, 2004 7:52:00 AM
Comments
(1) marla made the following comment | Nov 3, 2004 5:01:33 AM | Permalink
ah....it has been a great victory for a man that history will later recognize for many great accomplishments. Now, let's keep this man in our prayers as he goes back to work for all of us.
It will be interesting to witness the MSM as they cover up their wrong choice and bias reporting during the campaign. CNN this evening was so funny not giving Ohioto Bush per the vote results.
James Carville was talking about the Dems having to regroup very early tonight, was it 10:00pm or 11:00pm?
Let's hope Mr Kerry and the democrats accept the loss with dignity and back our president that received the vast majority and electoral votes!
Thanks for some great information Beldar! Your blog continued to give us hope that their was someone else that thought like we did!!
(2) Bob M made the following comment | Nov 3, 2004 7:14:24 AM | Permalink
That's a good analysis--ASSUMING that the provisional ballots arose under a process similar to the ballots of people whose registrations had no problems. But if the provisional ballots were the target of a grand fraud method (fill out as many as you possibly can for your guy--stuffing the buffer on the way to the ballot box) then maybe the numbers really are there for Kerry.
(3) The Drill SGT made the following comment | Nov 3, 2004 7:19:18 AM | Permalink
Beldar.
I agree. Though one can argue that those provisional ballots include larger numbers of new or transient voters, and overly representative of the poor and young, the basic laws of statistics, particularly the "Law of large numbers" kick in and would seem to rule out vast swings in the count.
"In a statistical context, laws of large numbers imply that the average of a random sample from a large population is likely to be close to the mean of the whole population."
(4) SemiPundit made the following comment | Nov 3, 2004 7:23:58 AM | Permalink
I am satisfied that this administration now decisively and publicly owns its folly.
(5) Chads made the following comment | Nov 3, 2004 7:42:22 AM | Permalink
If it's folly, sir, then a majority of Americans apparently beleive in it.
When you look at the state maps, what you'll find is the vast majority of America's rural areas went for bush. Kerry controlle 3 counties in MO and got 46% of the vote! The lording over of us rural folks by the left has obviously become a little chafing, as were Brokaw's condescending tones when he noticed the trend last night.
Chads
(6) Steve L. made the following comment | Nov 3, 2004 7:51:37 AM | Permalink
Go ahead and color Ohio red for this election in permanent ink. No amount of lawyering is going to flip this state.
I'm worried. Bush doesn't have a brother that is the governor of Ohio. How is he going to steal the election?
(7) The Drill SGT made the following comment | Nov 3, 2004 8:01:51 AM | Permalink
I voted for Bush.
Having said that, I'm certainly not happy with his overall conduct. among the mistakes:
1. not listening to the Army CSA about troop strengths
2. making the SS/medicare problem ultimately worse by pandering a bad prescription drug bill. Additional benefits should only have been offered as part of a restructuring package
3. the "we can ignore the Geneva Convention" case by adminstration hack lawyers. I think the whole Army should be sick of the residue of that debacle
4. not working much faster and better on nuclear proliferation. "loose nukes plus Korea head the list", Iran close behind
5. run away pork by the Republican Congress. VETO SOMETHING!!
6. the list goes on. and on, but I'm tired.
(8) gp made the following comment | Nov 3, 2004 8:01:58 AM | Permalink
Give it a rest, Steve. We had to put up with your BS about a stolen election for 4 long years. Now STUFF IT!!
(9) Beldar made the following comment | Nov 3, 2004 8:10:15 AM | Permalink
I don't know, but I read Steve L.'s comment above as being tongue-in-cheek.
(10) bbbeard made the following comment | Nov 3, 2004 8:33:03 AM | Permalink
I just checked
http://election.sos.state.oh.us/results/SingleRaceSummary.aspx?race=PP
again, and here are their 100% precinct numbers:
Bush, George W. Republican 2,796,147 51.01%
Kerry, John F. Democratic 2,659,664 48.52%
The difference is 136,483 votes for Bush. There is a link on that page to the provisional ballot count that gives a total of 135,149. I gather that the provisional ballot count is itself provisional, since 10 or so counties show no subtotal. But, geez, what is it going to take to get Kerry to 'fess up?
BBB
(11) Kent made the following comment | Nov 3, 2004 9:21:49 AM | Permalink
Y'all are missing the point.
Everyone with an I.Q. above room temperature -- and that includes the Kerry camp -- know who won the election.
The politicking at this point is not directed towards reversing the outcome, or even making a serious legal challenge, IMO. It is aimed at producing a vague discontent among Democratic voters that, somehow, in some way they can't quite finger, they were cheated. The intent is to keep the Democratic rank and file foaming at the mouth against Bush and the Republicans.
This is damaging to public discourse and the nation, but that does not seem to have bothered the Democrats lately.
(12) Ron made the following comment | Nov 3, 2004 9:31:11 AM | Permalink
See "Dean's World" blog. Dean Esmay had a guy that was poll watching in Detroit for the RNC report the open fraud going on there. I wouldn't put it past the DNC to have the same thing going on nationwide. This involves thousands of fraudulent votes.
I, for one, haven't signed on to this "let's all get together and be friends now" crappola while we drink the koolaid and sing kumbaya.
The DNC has been nothing shy of the Nazi party this election. Things go their way or else. The media whores are right there with them spreading their hyperbole to the "poor uneducated masses". Color me "ain't gonna happen" when in comes to forgive and forget.
(13) brandon davis made the following comment | Nov 3, 2004 10:37:09 AM | Permalink
It's done. Kerry concession speech in two hours, 1PM EST.
And the American Left?
Pah!
Sooner or later they'll figure out that it's no longer efficacious being "useful idiots" to a failed world movement, and move on to some other dystopian dreamworlds (or grow up, the majority of 'em).
The real message sent by this election is the message sent to the rest of the world.
Americans. Will. Fight.
...we will kill you if you attack us. We will destroy your ability to make war on us.
And to all those shackled in the chains of fascism, to those who still hope, and dream of freedom, even from their prisons: Americans are coming, and we will kill your evil masters.
We will spend our treasure and our blood, and we will give you freedom and dignity and democracy ...and the future.
...and then we will go home.
(14) SemiPundit made the following comment | Nov 3, 2004 10:59:06 AM | Permalink
I'm not at all surprised at the outcome, and in fact have said that I believed it would turn out this way. I subscribe to the "run with the big dogs or stay under the porch" school of politics. I don't tolerate whiners well at all.
By the way, The Big Dog is now patched up, rested, and out from under the porch, and I believe he would have handily beaten Bush if he could have run again. (Preemptive comment: Forget any remarks about Hillary running in 2008. We will be sick of dynasties by then.)
It is time to cut Kerry loose, let him get back to the Senate and do a good job for his constituents and America.
The Bush administration is now at center stage and in the spotlight. Reality is ready to set in, and they will have to account to the people who put them there.
For example, just this morning, I spoke with a man I know, an intensely evangelical Christian, who was ecstatic over the certainty that all abortion "would soon be outlawed" (the mother's fate left in God's hands), and that Christian prayer would now begin each public school day (his kids go to a private church school). The only problem he has is that he doesn't want a Catholic teacher to lead the prayer.
There's trouble ahead.
(15) SemiPundit made the following comment | Nov 3, 2004 11:02:13 AM | Permalink
Brandon:
When do we attack Indonesia and the Philippines?
(16) Kent made the following comment | Nov 3, 2004 12:55:25 PM | Permalink
"(Preemptive comment: Forget any remarks about Hillary running in 2008. We will be sick of dynasties by then.)"
Anyone with an IQ above room temperature knows better. Democrats have no real aversion to dynasties, as long as they're theirs. Can you say "Kennedy?"
"It is time to cut Kerry loose, let him get back to the Senate and do a good job for his constituents and America."
I would welcome the change.
(17) SemiPundit made the following comment | Nov 3, 2004 2:12:59 PM | Permalink
Kent:
Kennedys included.
I think that, beginning sooner than desired, many of you will find it distracting and irrelevant to speculate on the 2008 campaign; first things first.
My guess is that you will be quite busy answering to the demands of our citizens who agreed to continue this administration's reign. It has figuratively written checks that have to be cashed. You guys have it all now--good luck.
My room stays very, very warm.
(18) Cap'n DOC made the following comment | Nov 3, 2004 2:36:33 PM | Permalink
You must be using solar heat.
"...The only problem he has is that he doesn't want a Catholic teacher to lead the prayer..."
But I'll bet he doesn't want to behead the teacher, either.
(19) Karl made the following comment | Nov 3, 2004 10:03:35 PM | Permalink
I did a similar analysis this morning, and came to pretty much the same conclusion. The Kerry camp claimed 250,000 votes remained to be counted. I plugged in the percentages from the county that voted most heavily for Kerry, and found Bush still won. (Kerry would have had to win some 77% of the remaining votes to tie the state.)
(20) Terry Mann made the following comment | Nov 4, 2004 12:32:22 AM | Permalink
Napolitano of Fox reports that most provisional ballots get thrown out because the person is in fact ineligible - often not a citizen.
He's the only one who actually said it - that illegal immigrants try valiantly to vote for their party- the Candymen, the Democrats.
(21) SemiPundit made the following comment | Nov 4, 2004 12:53:55 AM | Permalink
Cap'n DOC:
I brought up this item not to be outrageous, but to cast a little light on what I have long perceived to be a problem with school-directed prayer and posting the Ten Commandments in classrooms (not to mention courthouses).
One group of people I know well are those of the Appalachian region of Kentucky, where I grew up. The vast majority of people there are evangelical Christians, many of who regard this issue to be of extreme importance. I grew up in the Southern Baptist Church wherein my grandfather was a minister and my father was a deacon. Many of my relatives are also ministers.
The point, to me, then, is that there could be a potential clash sometime down the road, since a lot of these people do not hold the validity of a Catholic's salvation in high regard.
Terry Mann:
Now I'm confused.
Why would such immigrants want to vote against a party that seeks expanded opportunities for them to come here freely and work at jobs Americans don't want anyway?
(22) Lee Shore made the following comment | Nov 4, 2004 1:18:38 AM | Permalink
SemiSmart on November 4, 2004 12:53 AM closed his eyes, hitched up his pants and emitted this gem:
Why would such immigrants want to vote against a party that seeks expanded opportunities for them to come here freely and work at jobs Americans don't want anyway?
If you're trying to be obtuse, Semi, you've succeeded. Aliens, and most especially illegal aliens, commit a crime if they vote in U.S. elections. But what's a little voter fraud between Democrats, eh?
~LS
(23) Where's The Beef/ made the following comment | Nov 4, 2004 1:49:24 AM | Permalink
Does anyone have the tally for the national popular vote that includes all candidates?
How is it possible to calculate that Nader got 1% when it looks like he got less than half of 1%?
And Kerry seems to have gotten just about 48% -- or a bit less.
Meanwhile President Bush got upwards of 52%.
But the vote is reported on TV as Bush 51, Kerry 49, and Nader 1. Is the MSM misreporting GWB's share of the popular vote?
(24) SemiPundit made the following comment | Nov 4, 2004 3:45:06 AM | Permalink
Of course it's illegal for them to vote, but if they could, wouldn't they at least vote for the guys who want them to have "guest worker" visas?
What puzzles me, though, is this: If you are an illegal alien who needs to keep a low profile, why go and try to register and vote?
(25) Kent made the following comment | Nov 4, 2004 9:34:21 AM | Permalink
"What puzzles me, though, is this: If you are an illegal alien who needs to keep a low profile, why go and try to register and vote?"
Is that really so mysterious?
Vetting of new voter registrations is a joke in every jurisdiction with which I am familiar. The risk of being caught is simply not very great. And you probably don't even have to "go"; odds are that a get-out-the-vote activist will come to you. He might even help you establish your bona fides, if he is not an honest player.
And think of the payoff. A voter registration card might look like proof of citizenship to an illegal, something he likely desperately wants.
So the risk that an illegal attempting to register will be detected is low, and the
(26) Lee Shore made the following comment | Nov 4, 2004 11:22:01 PM | Permalink
SemiPundit on November 4, 2004 03:45 AM whipped out his blunt crayon and wrote this:
Of course it's illegal for them to vote, but if they could, wouldn't they at least vote for the guys who want them to have "guest worker" visas?
You really should read more than the comic pages. Guess who has proposed a guest worker program?
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2004/01/20040107-3.html
~LS
(27) Steverino made the following comment | Nov 8, 2004 12:23:17 AM | Permalink
I spoke with a man I know, an intensely evangelical Christian, who was ecstatic over the certainty that all abortion "would soon be outlawed"
You can go tell that man, and anyone else from the left or right end of political spectrum, that abortion won't be outlawed, at least not in the sense he's dreaming of.
Even if Roe v. Wade is overturned, things will revert to where they were before the decision: the states will decide whether to allow abortion. I'd be surprised if more than 5-10 states outlawed it. Even if the state you live in outlaws it, there's nothing to stop a woman from travelling to a state where it's legal.
What puzzles me, though, is this: If you are an illegal alien who needs to keep a low profile, why go and try to register and vote?
Probably because very few INS agents hang out at polling places. Find out how many illegals were deported because they tried to vote in 2002.
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